International merchandise trade rose by +9.5% in 2018 according to LogIndex, the data company of Kuehne + Nagel. Despite the trade dispute between the two largest economies and a slowdown in momentum over the course of the year, this growth is only slightly below the 2017 rate (+9.7%). In December, the Americas were the regions with the strongest growth rates, followed by Asia and Europe.

-1.3% Month-over-Month (MoM)

The gKNi World Trade Indicator powered by LogIndex AG, the data company of Kuehne + Nagel, stood at 138.6 at the end of December 2018, up +4.0% from 2017 and down -1.3% compared to November 2018. Latin America (+9.5%) and North America (+4.9%) were the best performers in December 2018, followed by Asia and Europe. According to the near real-time shipper analytics based on customs data, the imports to the United States rose in December 2018, particularly for computers, vehicles, electronic products and capital goods in general – except for products for the semiconductor industry.

This chart shows the annual rates of the World Trade Indicator (WTI) in nominal values and USD terms.

A solid year overall

Despite new tariffs, 2018 was a solid year: Measured in nominal USD terms, the World Trade Indicator increased by 9.5%, almost at the same pace as 2017 (+9.7%), and remarkably higher than 2016 (-3.3%) or 2015 (-9.3%). The jump in 2018 was caused by volume growth (around 4%) as well as higher prices and US dollar change.

World Trade Indicator at the end of November 2018, seasonally and working-day adjusted (SA), in USD: 138.6 points, Jan 2010 = 100 points (+1.7% YoY). Export and import data from World Trade Organization (WTO) at the end of September 2018, in USD: 148.3 (+4.1% YoY); Jan 2010 = 100 points. The monthly merchandise values according to WTO are not seasonally or working-day adjusted (NSA), exports are valued FOB and imports CIF.

Sea freight up +2.9%

In ocean freight, measured by the live throughput of ports, the unit volume increased in December (+0.8% MoM), after a decline in November (-1.2%). Overall, sea freight rose by +2.9% last year. The cargo and container throughput in U.S. ports increased by +4.0% in 2018. The Chinese ports recorded a growth rate of +2.8%.

Month-over-Month changes of World Trade Indicator (WTI) past 13 months.

gKNi World Trade Indicator (YoY) compared to crude oil price (West Texas
Intermediate) from January 2007 to December 2018 (scale on the left). It’s
about US dollars per barrel, monthly prices, end of the period. Crude oil prices
have reached the lows last seen in 2016.

Heat map with the latest trends, derived from LogIndex forecasts and official data of exports and
imports, in USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD, AND SEK (in USD: USA, Latin America, Africa, Eastern
Europe, Baltic, Balkan, India, China, Indonesia, Vietnam, a.o.).

（来源: LogIndex）